Decline in Indian and Global Sugar Production Expected Due to El Niño

20-May-2026 01:36 PM

New Delhi: The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has estimated that during the current marketing season 2025-26, global sugar production will be 182 million tons, while consumption is expected to be 179.8 million tons. This would result in a surplus production of around 2.2 million tons. However, for the 2026-27 season, this surplus is expected to decline sharply to just 0.262 million tons, as sugar production is projected to fall while consumption is likely to increase slightly.

The reason for this is the impact of the El Niño weather cycle, which is expected to reduce rainfall in countries such as India, Thailand, and Australia. This could damage sugarcane crops and lead to lower yields, resulting in sugar mills receiving less raw material.

Meanwhile, in Brazil—the world’s largest sugar producer and exporter—sugar production may decrease as more sugarcane is expected to be diverted for ethanol production this year. In the European Union, sugar is produced from sugar beet rather than sugarcane. Due to unattractive prices, farmers are expected to plant less sugar beet, which could also negatively affect sugar production.

In India, during the 2025-26 season, sugar production showed much lower growth than expected.