SOPA 2025 – Price Outlook Session Summary

SOPA 2025 – Price Outlook Session Summary Moderator: Mritunjay Jha, Zee Business Panelist Views: Janakiraman, Suguna Foods DDGS is a new commodity for the meal industry but is expected to stabilize in 2-3 years. DDGS cannot completely replace soyadoc. Price Outlook: Prices are currently at a bottom level and may rise in the future. Vivek Pathak, Athena Trading Meal prices are currently high. Global trading patterns are changing – earlier Bangladesh purchased from India, now due to high prices, it imports directly from Argentina. India should focus on its own consumption. Soy acreage is stable; productivity improvement is the only solution. Price Outlook: Palm oil is trending bullish. Rains in Indonesia and Malaysia are affecting production. CPO in Malaysia may trend above 5,000 ringgits. Sunflower oil is around 1,350 USD/MT and may increase in the future. A dynamic duty structure is needed. Prices may reach 5,000 INR/quintal in Jan–Mar. Sandeep Gupta, Bunge Global business in the oil sector is rapidly changing. Last year, 22 lakh tons of soy stocks held by the government kept the market under pressure; this year, procurement is also high. Prices may stay around 4,200–4,300 INR/quintal till December and rise to 5,000 INR/quintal from January. Price Outlook: Due to Bhavantar Yojana, prices may drop 5–7% from current levels. Prashant Reddy, LDC US and global policies are changing regularly. The oil complex is moving upward due to factors like biodiesel and the B50 program. Price Outlook: Soy oil prices will increase, boosting crushing margins. Soy oil may reach 5,000 INR/quintal. Ajay Parmar, MOEL India produces an average of 8 million tons of soymeal annually, of which 1.7–1.8 million tons is exported, the rest consumed domestically. DDGS is currently a challenge but will stabilize in the future. Price Outlook: Prices are not expected to fall further. Although the government has increased import duties on oils, soybean prices were in a lower trend. Prices may range between 4,500–5,000 INR/quintal in the future. Amit Jain, Abis Foods Soymeal demand is growing 9–10% per year. DDGS is currently fulfilling demand. Maize DDGS production reached 3.1 million tons and rice DDGS 0.8 million tons. DDGS competition is a hurdle for the soymeal industry. Price Outlook: Soybean prices are at the lowest level and are expected to improve once demand picks up. DN Pathak, SOPA Out of 65 districts in Madhya Pradesh, 55 received excessive rainfall, affecting crops. Crop damage reported in Rajasthan, MP, and Maharashtra. The impact of DDGS is short-term but beneficial for the soy industry in the long term. High prices of soy products are determined by raw soybeans. Bhavantar Yojana is a good initiative, but stakeholders must work honestly. The only solution to all problems is improving productivity. Mehul, Africa Representative East and West Africa experienced smaller crop size this year. Africa produces a total of 2.2 million tons; after 1.3–1.4 million tons crushing, 0.6–0.7 million tons are exported. Benin’s exports are restricted; if opened, India may import 0.1–0.2 million tons. The Government of India should restart future trading of the oil complex. Price Outlook: With current crop arrivals, prices may range between 4,200–4,500 INR, potentially rising to 5,000 INR/quintal from January. All experts agreed that improving productivity is the key solution to all challenges. Regarding future prices, there is consensus that prices may reach the 5,000 INR/quintal level.