The Monsoon and the Kharif Season
30-May-2026 11:03 AM
Due to the influence of the El Niño weather cycle, there is apprehension that the balance and dynamics of the Southwest Monsoon may be disrupted this year. El Niño is expected to arrive next month, coinciding with the scheduled arrival of the monsoon in June.
Initially, the monsoon was predicted to make landfall on the southern coast of Kerala—marking its entry into the Indian mainland—on May 26; however, that date has already passed. The monsoon is currently positioned over Sri Lanka; provided weather conditions remain favorable, it is expected to reach India by June 4 or 5—a slight delay compared to its scheduled arrival date of June 1.
Typically, even when the monsoon arrives during the first week of June, its overall performance remains largely normal, with no significant deficit in rainfall; however, the circumstances are somewhat different this time around. Concerns are being raised regarding the potential for El Niño to have a widespread and significant impact on the monsoon.
The Meteorological Department itself has projected that rainfall this season will amount to 90 percent of the long-period average—a downward revision from its earlier forecast, which had indicated a 92 percent probability of rainfall. This serves as a clear indication that the monsoon is likely to be weaker this year.
More importantly, the spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rainfall could prove to be irregular, unpredictable, and erratic—conditions that would be detrimental to Kharif crops. While some parts of the country may experience excessive rainfall, other regions could face the looming threat of drought.
The season for sowing Kharif crops in India formally commences in June. At the national level, current conditions are not yet conducive for crop sowing—and specifically for the transplantation of paddy (rice) seedlings. There is a prevailing scarcity of water and soil moisture across every region.
Farmers are anxiously awaiting the arrival of monsoon rains, as the pace of sowing operations can only accelerate once the precipitation begins. Farmers engaged in the cultivation of pulses and oilseeds are particularly apprehensive,
harboring doubts as to whether sowing activities will be able to commence on schedule. Furthermore, there is a likelihood of reduced rainfall during the months of July and August due to the influence of El Niño. The government is currently undertaking preparatory measures to effectively address and mitigate the situation.