Reduction in Global Sugar Surplus Stock Forecast

04-Sep-2026 04:39 PM

London. In its May report, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) had projected a global sugar surplus of 2.2 million tonnes for the 2025-26 season; however, its latest report has revised this figure down by 50 percent to 1.1 million tonnes. The ISO releases its reports on a quarterly basis, and the adjustment made in the August 2026 report marks the fourth revision for the 2025-26 season.

The new report anticipates a significant drop in sugar production, particularly in the Center-South region of Brazil. It is worth noting that Brazil, located in Latin America, is the world's largest sugar producer and exporter, with approximately 90 percent of its sugar produced in the Center-South region. Conversely, there has been some improvement in sugar production in China.

The ISO projects that China's sugar production will surge to around 13 million tonnes, the highest level since the 2013-14 season.

Regarding the 2026-27 season, a marginal decline of 0.2 million tonnes in global sugar production is anticipated, while consumption is projected to rise by 0.8 million tonnes. Global sugar consumption is estimated to increase by 0.5 percent—or 0.9 million tonnes—to reach 179.6 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season compared to 2024-25; it is further projected to rise by another 0.8 million tonnes to reach 180.4 million tonnes in the 2026-27 season.

Sugar production outside Brazil is expected to fall by 4.4 million tonnes, with significant contributions to this decline coming from the European Union, Thailand, and countries in Central North America. Sugar production in Brazil may increase next year.