Potential for a large wheat crop remains intact

11-Feb-2026 05:41 PM

New Delhi. The India Meteorological Department (IMD)'s rainfall and temperature forecast for February and March is not particularly favorable for the wheat crop. The La Niña weather cycle has already weakened significantly, diminishing the likelihood of rain in the country.

Occasional western disturbances and activity in the Bay of Bengal are expected to bring some rain, but amid rising temperatures, this lighter-than-normal rainfall may not be sufficient to ensure significant benefits for the wheat crop.

The arrival of the El Niño weather cycle is still at least four months away. The weather is expected to remain neutral from February to June, meaning that neither La Niña nor El Niño will be prevalent during this period.

Wheat sowing has long since concluded nationally, and this year's acreage has increased to 334.17 lakh hectares, which is 6.13 lakh hectares more than last year's sown area of ​​328.04 lakh hectares and approximately 22 lakh hectares more than the five-year average area of ​​312.35 lakh hectares.

Based on the increase in sowing area, an increase in wheat production can easily be predicted, but favorable weather conditions in February and March are also essential for optimal production.

This time, wheat seeds have been used in approximately 75 percent of the area, which have increased the ability of the resulting plants to tolerate adverse weather.

If there are timely rains and temperatures do not rise excessively, the country can once again achieve a large wheat production. Currently, the overall crop condition is normal and satisfactory. The future will be crucial as the wheat plants will continue to flower and set grains.