★ The 2026 kharif soybean season has started on a weak note. As of last Friday, soybean sowing had reached only 692,000 hectares, compared with 2.0 million hectares during the same period last year. The southwest monsoon is running nearly 20 days behind schedule, and the growing threat of El Niño has slowed planting activity across major producing regions.

★ The Government has fixed the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for soybean at ₹5,708 for the 2026-27 season, an increase of ₹380 per quintal over last year.

★ Current mandi prices are Latur: ₹7,000 per quintal, Amravati: ₹6,711 and Kota: ₹6,875

★ In the government soybean tender, H-1 bids ranged between ₹6,575 and ₹7,061, indicating that market prices are currently trading above the MSP. However, farmers received disappointing prices during last season's marketing period, which has weakened their confidence.

★ During the past two months, soybean imports from African countries have increased, while India has continued importing soybean oil. At the same time, both domestic and export demand for soybean meal remain weak, putting pressure on crushing margins and the profitability of industry stakeholders.

★ As a result of weak demand and import competition, many soybean traders, processors, and other stakeholders are facing financial stress, with some scaling down or exiting the business altogether.

★ Farmers generally make sowing decisions based on prices prevailing during the sowing season and the returns received during the previous harvest. Since soybean prices were disappointing during last year's selling season and market sentiment remains weak during the current sowing period, farmer interest could be affected unless price realization improves.

★ Going forward, the market will largely depend on the progress of the monsoon. If El Niño intensifies and rainfall remains below normal during July and August, soybean production could be affected. However, soybean is relatively more resilient than many other kharif crops, and acreage could still increase if rainfall improves during the coming weeks.

★ Nevertheless, any adverse weather development or policy decision affecting market supplies could trigger significant price volatility.

★ The Government currently holds ample soybean stocks, which can be utilized if required in the future. Considering the uncertainty surrounding rainfall, aggressive disposal of stocks may not be advisable. A limited-sale or "wait-and-watch" strategy would be more appropriate to ensure adequate availability if production is impacted later in the season.

★ The soybean market is currently facing challenges from weak demand, rising imports of soybean and edible oils, and declining farmer confidence. However, weather remains the key market driver. If El Niño results in below-normal rainfall and lower production, the current pressure on the market could ease, leading to a recovery in prices. In such a scenario, balanced import policies, prudent government stock management, and measures to sustain farmer interest will be essential for long-term market stability.