★ Tur (pigeon pea) prices are likely to remain firm and could move significantly higher if the current weather situation does not improve.

★ Tur sowing has been severely affected this season, with acreage falling sharply. The two key producing states, Maharashtra and Karnataka, have received below-normal rainfall, and the crop urgently requires timely showers. With the sowing window gradually narrowing, the possibility of recovering the lost acreage is diminishing.

★ The international market is also closely watching India's crop situation because India is the world's largest consumer and importer of tur. Any significant decline in domestic production is expected to increase import demand.

★ India's annual tur consumption is estimated at around 45 lakh tonnes. If production is limited to around 20 lakh tonnes (illustrative scenario), the country would require nearly 25 million tonnes to bridge the gap. However, import availability itself is limited. Myanmar produces only around 3-4 lakh tonnes for export, while African suppliers together may contribute up to about 10 lakh tonnes. Even if India manages to import around 14 million tonnes, a substantial supply gap could still remain unless adequate carryover or government stocks are available.

★ Tur prices have already been moving higher due to tightening supply expectations. Although the government currently holds buffer stocks that can help moderate prices for some time, sustained price stability will ultimately depend on a good domestic crop. If rainfall remains inadequate and production declines materially, tur prices could move towards new record highs.