Maize Prices Expected to Remain Firm Amid Concerns Over Production Decline

New Delhi. Domestic production of Kharif-season maize is likely to see a significant decline this year, driven by a reduction in the area sown and persistent, severe drought conditions in key producing states like Maharashtra and Karnataka. Meanwhile, demand and consumption of maize are expected to rise across sectors, including animal feed, poultry feed, starch manufacturing, and ethanol-producing distilleries. Consequently, the supply-demand equation is set to become complex, likely leading to a firming trend in prices. Maize prices may remain above the Minimum Support Price (MSP).

The animal feed sector projects that Kharif maize production will fall by 16.75% compared to last year, reaching 23.209 million tonnes (232.09 lakh tonnes). The area under maize cultivation has also shrunk by 9% to 8.906 million hectares (89.06 lakh hectares), with a decline also anticipated in the average yield. According to the Compound Livestock Feed Manufacturers Association, domestic soybean production this year could fall by 3.52% to 12.406 million tonnes (124.06 lakh tonnes). The Union Ministry of Agriculture had previously estimated a Kharif 2025 soybean production of 12.859 million tonnes (128.59 lakh tonnes).

According to the Association, compared to the previous year, Kharif maize production in Maharashtra is estimated to drop by 24.22% to 2.28 million tonnes (22.80 lakh tonnes), while in Karnataka, it is expected to decline by 33.37% to 3.4 million tonnes (34 lakh tonnes). As for soybeans, production in Maharashtra is projected to fall by 4% to 4.65 million tonnes (46.50 lakh tonnes), and in Madhya Pradesh—the leading producing state—it is expected to decrease by 10.43% to 5.32 million tonnes (53.20 lakh tonnes).

Maize prices are expected to remain firm in the coming period. There is also uncertainty surrounding the Rabi season crops. The Minimum Support Price (MSP) for maize has seen a marginal increase of Rs 10 per quintal, which is dampening farmers' enthusiasm and interest in its cultivation. However, prices for maize could rise if demand from the ethanol industry increases.