Industry-trade sector does not agree with the government production estimate of wheat

13-Mar-2025 11:20 AM

New Delhi: The Union Agriculture Ministry has estimated record wheat production of 1154.30 lakh tonnes for the 2024-25 Rabi season, surpassing both the set target of 1150 lakh tonnes and last season’s final figure of 1132.90 lakh tonnes. However, industry and trade experts strongly disagree with these projections.

Diverging Estimates:

  • Government Estimate (2024-25): 1154.30 lakh tonnes
  • Roller Flour Millers Federation of India Estimate: 1100 lakh tonnes
  • Industry-Trade Analysts Estimate: 1040-1060 lakh tonnes

Concerns Over Government Estimates:

  • Similar disagreements arose in 2023-24, when the government projected 1132.90 lakh tonnes, but industry estimates were significantly lower.
  • Market trends did not support government claims: No significant increase in government procurement, exports, or available stock.
  • Northern India’s flour millers argue that wheat supply remained tight throughout the year, contradicting high production claims.

Past Discrepancies in Wheat Production Estimates:

  • 2023 Government Estimate: 1105.50 lakh tonnes
  • Industry-Traders Estimate: Below 1000 lakh tonnes

Given past miscalculations and current high market prices, the trade sector expected a more realistic production estimate from the Agriculture Ministry. The gap between official figures and industry estimates raises serious concerns about supply, availability, and pricing in the coming months.

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