Indications of El Niño Becoming Active in June

27-May-2026 11:59 AM

Thiruvananthapuram: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is showing clear signs of progressing toward an El Niño phase. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are rising rapidly, generating heat in the region. Several other factors are also actively contributing to this development. While the situation currently remains neutral, conditions conducive to an El Niño event could emerge very soon.

A report by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology states that all climate models indicate that, by June, sea surface temperatures will reach—or exceed—the threshold considered the baseline for the formation of an El Niño event. Although uncertainty persists regarding the strength, intensity, and extent of this El Niño cycle, available indicators suggest that it will be, at the very least, of moderate intensity.

Some meteorologists are forecasting a "Super El Niño," though such a scenario may only materialize at a later stage. The intensity, concentration, and dynamics of the El Niño event will continue to evolve in tandem with changes in sea surface temperatures across the tropical central Pacific region.

Australia, New Zealand, India, other South Asian nations, and countries across Southeast Asia are expected to be particularly affected by the impact of this El Niño cycle. In India, this influence could alter the nature and trajectory of the Southwest Monsoon, potentially rendering rainfall patterns uncertain and erratic.

While some parts of the country may experience torrential downpours, other regions could face severe drought conditions. Consequently, there is a significant risk of adverse effects on the sowing and growth of *Kharif* crops.