Increasing Intensity of El Niño a Cause for Concern for India

New Delhi. The intensity, severity, and strength of the El Niño weather cycle are growing due to rising sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean—a development that is a cause for concern for India. A strong El Niño has the potential to disrupt rainfall patterns across the country.

During the southwest monsoon season, the country experienced a deficit in summer rainfall, which is expected to lead to a decline in Kharif crop production.

Now, the northeast (winter) monsoon is also under threat. Although various parts of the country are currently receiving good rainfall—a trend likely to continue, more or less, until the first week of November—a subsequent lack of rain may follow. This could adversely affect the sowing and development of Rabi crops in certain states.

However, if the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) shifts to a positive phase, the adverse impact of El Niño on India could be significantly mitigated. There is a growing expectation that it will indeed turn positive.