★ India's soybean sowing for the 2026 kharif season reached around 11.4 million hectares as of 24 July, compared with 11.7 million hectares during the same period last year. While the decline in acreage is relatively modest, the impact of El Niño, below-normal monsoon rainfall, and inadequate precipitation across several key producing regions has increased concerns over crop productivity.

★ India produced approximately 11.3 million tonnes of soybeans last year. Based on the current crop condition and prevailing weather scenario, production this season is expected to decline to around 10.5 million tonnes. If rainfall remains below normal during August and September, the crop outlook could weaken further.

★ Despite the likelihood of lower production, domestic soybean availability remains comfortable for the time being. The primary reason is the sharp increase in imports. During the current oil year (October–September), India has imported around 770,000 tonnes of soybeans, compared with negligible imports in the previous year, helping to support domestic supplies.

★ At the same time, India's soybean meal exports have declined significantly. Exports during the current year are estimated at around 900,000 tonnes, nearly 600,000 tonnes lower than last year. The decline in exports has resulted in higher domestic availability of soybean meal.

★ Globally, soybean supplies also remain comfortable. Adequate inventories and strong production prospects in major producing countries such as Brazil and the United States indicate no immediate supply shortage, keeping international soybean prices under pressure.

★ India's crushing industry continues to face multiple challenges. Large imports of cheaper soybean oil have reduced the competitiveness of domestic crushers. Meanwhile, lower soybean meal exports and subdued domestic demand have further squeezed crushing margins.

★ The growing use of DDGS (Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles) in the livestock feed industry has also affected domestic soybean meal consumption. Many feed manufacturers are increasingly substituting soybean meal with DDGS, limiting demand growth.

★ During the second week of July, soybean prices across major Indian mandis traded in the range of ₹6,500–₹7,550 per quintal. However, during the last week of July, prices declined by nearly ₹500 per quintal due to weaker demand and limited buying interest.

★ Going forward, the direction of the soybean market will primarily depend on three factors—actual domestic crop conditions, final production estimates, and the performance of the monsoon under the influence of El Niño during August and September. If weather concerns intensify and farmer selling remains limited, prices are likely to recover.

★ According to IGrain India, the recent correction has brought soybean prices close to their near-term bottom. Concerns over lower production, weather uncertainty, and expectations of relatively tighter supplies until the arrival of the new crop are likely to support the market. As a result, soybean prices could recover by around ₹500 per quintal in the short term.

★ However, the longer-term trend will largely depend on rainfall during August and September and the eventual size of the 2026 soybean harvest.

★ In conclusion, the soybean market is currently balancing two opposing forces. On one hand, record imports, weak crushing margins, and subdued demand are exerting pressure on prices. On the other, the prospect of lower domestic production and persistent weather risks is providing fundamental support. Considering these factors, IGrain India expects a short-term recovery of around ₹500 per quintal, while the medium- to long-term direction will be determined by the final crop outcome.