Global wheat availability could exceed one billion tonnes

14-Sep-2026 07:12 PM

Chicago. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected that total wheat supply and availability for the 2026-27 marketing season will rise to 1.10 billion tonnes, an increase of 3.5 million tonnes over the previous month's estimate. This figure accounts for both production and carry-over stocks. The USDA's latest monthly report raises wheat production forecasts for exporting nations such as Australia, Canada, and Ukraine.

The report also raises the global wheat consumption forecast by 0.5 million tonnes to 826.8 million tonnes, while lowering the global trade estimate by 0.9 million tonnes to 211.8 million tonnes. Although the USDA anticipates a decline in global wheat usage for food, seed, and industrial purposes during the 2026-27 season, it projects an increase in consumption for animal feed and residual uses.

The global wheat trade forecast has been reduced because shipments of the grain via the Black Sea route from Russia and Ukraine are being severely disrupted. Both nations are subjecting each other's ports and commercial vessels to heavy bombardment, and the duration of this crisis remains uncertain. The USDA projects global wheat ending stocks for the 2026-27 season at 276.3 million tonnes—approximately 3 million tonnes higher than the August estimate. High stock levels are anticipated in Russia, Australia, and Ukraine, as there are doubts regarding their export performance.