Early Monsoon arrivals may result Surge in Sugarcane and Sugar Production

09-Jul-2025 06:11 PM

New Delhi. During the current year, the arrival of the southwest monsoon about eight days ahead of schedule and good rainfall at the national level have significantly benefited the sugarcane crop, raising expectations of better production. As a result, sugar mills may receive more raw material, potentially increasing sugar output.

According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall in June was 9 percent higher than the normal average, and surplus rainfall is also expected in July.

If this trend continues, sugarcane, along with other Kharif crops, will benefit. However, rainfall distribution in major sugarcane-producing regions remains crucial. Reports indicate lower-than-average rainfall in parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and Bihar.

At the global level, the prospect of surplus sugar production has been putting pressure on prices for the past three months.

Early this week, the futures price of raw sugar for the July contract on the New York Exchange fell to its lowest level in four and a quarter years. Similarly, the futures price for white sugar for the August contract on the London Exchange also hit a four-year low.

A leading trade agency, Jarnikov, has estimated a global sugar production surplus of 7.5 million tonnes for the 2025–26 marketing season — the highest in the last eight years.

Earlier, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its biennial report released on May 22, projected global sugar production to rise by 4.7 percent to 189.3 million tonnes during the 2025–26 season compared to 2024–25. The global sugar stock is also expected to rise by 7.5 percent to 41.19 million tonnes.

In India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer after Brazil, sugar production is estimated to rise by 19 percent to 35 million tonnes during the 2025–26 season compared to the previous year. This increase will help ensure better domestic availability of sugar.