Apprehensions of Uncertainty Regarding the Monsoon's Course and Nature

22-May-2026 03:22 PM

Thiruvananthapuram: Although the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the monsoon will make its landfall on Kerala's southernmost coast (Calicut) as early as May 26, 2026—despite the scheduled arrival date being June 1—some international meteorological agencies have warned that the monsoon's behavior could become uncertain and erratic after June 15. This could potentially lead to prolonged drought-like conditions in various parts of the country.

If this prediction proves true, the sowing of Kharif crops could be delayed, as the soil in the fields has dried out due to the scorching heat of May. Furthermore, a cyclonic circulation currently forming over the Arabian Sea could hinder the monsoon's advancement toward India.

Consequently, doubts have arisen regarding the monsoon's arrival on May 26. However, at this juncture, it remains difficult to state anything with absolute certainty in this regard.

All in all, the situation does not appear encouraging this time around; therefore, it is imperative to keep a close watch on every possible scenario and aspect.

The monsoon serves as the lifeline of India's agricultural sector, and a weak monsoon would prove detrimental to the nation.