Wheat Prices May Fall Below MSP Due to Surplus Stocks

27-Feb-2026 12:16 PM

New Delhi: With the arrival of the 2026 rabi marketing season, a heavy supply of new wheat is expected to enter the market in the coming weeks. As a result, wheat prices in both the central pool and open markets may fall below the Minimum Support Price (MSP). A strong domestic wheat production is expected in the current rabi season.

The central government has increased the MSP for wheat by ₹160 to ₹2,585 per quintal, but most traders and producers believe that during the peak arrival season, mandi prices could fall ₹300–400 per quintal below MSP.

During the 2024–25 rabi season, the government estimated a record wheat production of 117.9 million tonnes, while the production target for 2025–26 has been set at 119 million tonnes. Large-scale arrivals of new wheat are expected to begin in April and continue roughly until June.

If mandi prices remain weak during this period, government agencies may be forced to procure very large quantities of wheat from farmers.

Uncertainty in government policy has also created hesitation among traders, as stock limits on wheat can be imposed at any time. Because of this risk, traders and stockists are likely to be more cautious in purchasing wheat from farmers this season.