New Delhi: Although turmeric sowing has commenced in major producing states, progress has not met expectations due to a lack of rainfall. Sources indicate that sowing has taken place in areas reliant on tube-wells, whereas operations have yet to begin in rain-fed regions. Typically, sowing is in full swing during June, but this year, water scarcity has caused delays. Furthermore, if rainfall does not occur soon in the producing states, the total area under cultivation could shrink. Traders anticipate that the El Niño effect will result in continued rainfall deficiency, leading to projections of water shortages for the crop even after sowing, which is expected to impact the harvest.

It is worth noting that while the area under turmeric cultivation increased by 30–35% last year, adverse weather conditions post-sowing damaged the crop. Consequently, the yield did not match the sowing extent, and total production was limited to 80–85 lakh bags, falling short of earlier estimates of 90–95 lakh bags.

Reports suggest that sowing prospects are satisfactory in the Erode region, whereas there are concerns regarding potential disruptions to sowing in Nizamabad and Maharashtra. Sowing activity is expected to pick up pace in July, following adequate rainfall in the coming days.

Market arrivals of turmeric remain low. Arrivals at the Nizamabad market have dropped to 2,000–2,500 bags, and at Erode, they stand at 4,000–4,500 bags; meanwhile, weekly arrivals at Sangli are hovering around 10,000–11,000 bags. Daily arrivals from the Marathwada region have dropped to around 9,000–10,000 bags. Sources indicate that, with the exception of Marathwada, 75–80% of the total produce from other growing states has already reached the markets. In contrast, farmers in the Marathwada region still hold 50% of their stock, which is currently in strong hands; farmers are waiting for prices to rise.

Industry sources state that although current turmeric prices are approximately ₹8–10 per kg higher than last year, a market downturn is unlikely due to the scarcity of stocks at production centers. Currently, prices for 'Single Polish Gatha' (whole turmeric) in the Delhi market are quoted at ₹152–154 per kg, whereas during the same period last year, they were quoted at ₹143–144 per kg. Sources believe that prices will inevitably rise as export demand increases in the coming days, given that stocks are low relative to consumption and weather conditions are unfavorable for sowing. It is estimated that current turmeric stocks across both production center markets and consumption centers total around 42–45 lakh bags, while there are still approximately 7–8 months remaining before the arrival of the new crop.

According to data released by the Spices Board, turmeric exports during the 2025-26 year (April–March) stood at 175,896 tonnes, generating revenue of ₹2,887.18 crore. In comparison, exports during 2024-25 totaled 176,325 tonnes with earnings of ₹2,885.39 crore. A record export volume of 183,868 tonnes was achieved during the 2020-21 year.