New Delhi. Red pepper production in the country is projected to decline for the second consecutive year due to a decrease in sowing area this year in major producer states like Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka. It is noteworthy that this year, red pepper was sown on 259,119 acres in Andhra Pradesh, a major producer, compared to 363,539 acres in 2024 and 591,722 acres in 2023. Furthermore, in Telangana, red pepper was sown on 1,38,460 acres this year, compared to 2,22,370 acres in 2024 and 341,326 acres in 2023. Furthermore, in Madhya Pradesh, the sowing area was only 50-60 percent of last year's level. There are also reports of a 40 percent drop in sowing in Karnataka.

Informed sources say that due to lower production, the daily arrival of red chili peppers in Madhya Pradesh's main market, Bediya, was 9,000-10,000 bags this year, compared to 15,000-16,000 bags last year. Last year, Madhya Pradesh's red chili pepper production was 3.0-3.2 million bags, and production in 2023 was estimated to be 3.5-3.8 million bags. Based on current arrivals, it is expected that this year's production will be limited to 1.8-2 million bags.

New arrivals have begun in the Hyderabad market of Andhra Pradesh, a major red chili producer. While arrivals in the Guntur market are reported to have begun in January. In addition to the reduction in sowing area this year, the weather was also unfavorable, which will inevitably lead to a decrease in production. According to information received, red chili production in Andhra Pradesh was estimated to be around 20 million bags in 2023, while it declined to around 10 million bags in 2024. Production forecasts for 2025-26 are projected to be 12.5 million bags. A 38 percent reduction in sowing area in Telangana will also result in lower chili production. Red chili production in Telangana was 7.5-8 million bags in 2023, which declined to 6.0-6.5 million bags in 2024. The forecast for the upcoming crop is expected to be around 5 million bags.

Traders say that current red chili prices are unlikely to decline significantly because, in addition to low production, good quality stocks are also low in the markets. Currently, the Guntur market is receiving mostly light goods. Due to this, export demand is limited. Teja quality is being quoted at ₹153/154 in the Guntur market, while 341 quality is being quoted at ₹180/185. Teja is also being traded at ₹157/158 in the Khammam market. Sources say that a price decline is unlikely until new supplies begin arriving in the Guntur market. Prices may fall temporarily as new supplies arrive, but not significantly. Red pepper prices will remain high in 2026.

In the first five months of 2025-26, red pepper exports increased by 46 tonnes per day, but due to lower production during the current season, revenue has increased by 20 percent. According to data from the Meteorological Board, red pepper exports during April-August 2025 amounted to 325,241 tonnes, with export revenues of ₹4571.22 crore. Whereas in April-August 2024, the export of red chilli was 222557 tonnes and the income received from export was Rs 3804.76 crore, during the year 2024-25 (April-March), the total export of red chilli was 715506 tonnes and the income received from export was Rs 11404.90 crore.