New Delhi: Informed sources state that cumin prices are currently hovering at minimum levels. There is little likelihood of any significant further decline from these rates in the near term. In the coming days, the market is expected to witness only minor fluctuations of ₹3–5. Although arrivals of cumin at markets in producing regions remain limited, prices remain subdued due to sluggish local and export trade. There is currently no prospect of an immediate rise in export demand, as the arrival of the new cumin crop has commenced in China; reports indicate that China's production this year is 5–10% higher than last year. Meanwhile, new cumin arrivals are set to begin in Turkey and Syria this month, which will likely keep Indian cumin exports low. Domestic cumin production for the current season has been lower compared to the previous year. While production in Rajasthan exceeded last year's figures, reports suggest a decline in Gujarat's output. According to available data, Gujarat's production fell from 44–45 lakh bags last year to 32–37 lakh bags this year. Conversely, trade estimates place Rajasthan's production at 57–58 lakh bags this year, up from the 51–52 lakh bags recorded last year.

Currently, cumin arrivals at markets in producing regions have stabilized at normal levels. Arrivals at Unjha—Gujarat's major market—stand at 10,000–11,000 bags, while Rajkot and Gondal are seeing arrivals of 800–1,000 bags. In Rajasthan, arrivals are running at 2,500–3,000 bags at the Merta market and 1,500–2,000 bags at Nagaur. Arrivals in Jodhpur have dropped to the range of 1,200–1,500 bags. Sources indicate that approximately 80–85% of the total produce has already reached the markets in Gujarat, whereas estimates suggest that 50–60% of the produce is expected to arrive in Rajasthan's markets. Sources report that cumin arrivals in Gujarat's markets have reached around 30–32 lakh bags so far, while arrivals in Rajasthan's markets are estimated to be around 25–26 lakh bags.

Industry sources state that there is no likelihood of a decline in current cumin prices. This is because market arrivals have decreased, while local demand is expected to improve in the coming days. Exports in sporadic quantities will also continue. Currently, cumin prices at production-center markets range from ₹185 to ₹210 per kilogram. While minor price fluctuations of ₹3–5 per kilogram may persist, prices are likely to rise during August and September.

Knowledgeable traders suggest that cumin sowing for the upcoming season could be adversely affected because producers are not receiving fair prices for their crop; meanwhile, they are securing better prices for crops like coriander and soybean. It is noteworthy that the total area sown with cumin across production centers for the current season was 11.18 lakh hectares, comprising 7.44 lakh hectares in Rajasthan and 3.74 lakh hectares in Gujarat.

During the 2025-26 financial year (April–March), while the volume of cumin exports declined by 14%, export earnings fell by 25% due to lower export price realizations. According to data released by the Spices Board, cumin exports during the year 2025-26 stood at 196,800 tonnes, generating export earnings of ₹4,611.15 crore. In contrast, cumin exports during the year 2024-25 amounted to 229,881 tonnes, with export earnings of ₹6,178.86 crore.