Soybean Prices Weak; China Support Possible
19-Jan-2026 04:47 PM
Chicago. US soybean exports and prices are expected to improve in the coming weeks, but price increases will be limited due to the prospect of record production in South America, particularly Brazil, which will ensure a large global supply of this important oilseed.
Soybean prices have been under pressure for a long time due to oversupply, but they saw some upward movement in the last week of December 2025 and the first week of 2026, before the start of the holiday season.
The US has had a bumper soybean crop this year, while Canada has seen good increases in wheat and canola production. Meanwhile, wheat production in Argentina and soybean production in Brazil are expected to increase rapidly to new record levels. Australia has also reported sufficient wheat production.
Soybean and corn crops in Brazil and Argentina are developing smoothly, and the weather remains largely favorable. Harvesting of the new soybean crop has begun in Brazil and will accelerate in the coming weeks.
Chinese importers are already active in purchasing soybeans there. The US is confident that Chinese buyers will soon begin importing large quantities of its soybeans as well.
It is understood that Chinese importers purchased approximately 7 million tons of US soybeans during September-October 2025, but the shipment did not take place until November-December.
China's inactivity is affecting US soybean exports. According to available data, only 795,000 tons of US soybeans have actually been shipped to China so far during the current 2025-26 marketing season, which is considered negligible compared to the 16.06 million tons exported during the same period last year.
As a result, total soybean exports from the United States during the period under review plummeted from 28.31 million tons to 15.23 million tons.
Although soybean imports into China increased sharply to a new record level during 2025, this was primarily due to massive imports from Brazil. The US still has its hopes pinned on China.