Rainfall Deficit Could Pose a Threat to Upcoming Rabi Crops
10-Sep-2026 05:22 PM
New Delhi. After remaining weak in June, the southwest monsoon gained significant strength and activity during July and August. While various states across the country received good rainfall in the first week of September, the total monsoon rainfall remains 14 percent below the Long Period Average (LPA) at the national level. The Meteorological Department has forecast that rainfall in September will also be 8–10 percent below the LPA. This situation threatens to adversely affect not only the yield rates and total output of Kharif crops but also the sowing and progress of the upcoming Rabi season crops, which are scheduled to begin sowing next month.
According to a leading rating agency, the deficient monsoon rainfall is likely to have the most adverse impact on crops such as cotton, pearl millet (bajra), maize, tur (pigeon pea), groundnut, and soybean. Water stocks in dams and reservoirs have failed to reach expected levels; this could hinder the irrigation of Kharif crops and result in limited water availability for Rabi crops.
Although the Meteorological Department has projected a 9 percent rainfall deficit for September, a private weather agency has predicted that the shortfall could reach up to 20 percent. While sowing for Kharif crops is largely complete, the condition of the crops in many areas is unsatisfactory due to the lack of rainfall, compounded by limited irrigation support. Sowing has already covered 98 percent of the normal average area for Kharif crops.
The Rabi season primarily involves the cultivation of wheat, gram (chickpea), lentil, pea, barley, and mustard, alongside other crops that are also grown during the Kharif season. This year, the acreage for crops such as paddy, moong (green gram), maize, ragi, groundnut, and soybean has lagged behind last year's figures. There has also been a decline in the area under cotton and sugarcane cultivation. The threat of El Niño persists, raising concerns for the Rabi crops.