Projected 11 million tonne decline in global rice production

New Delhi. Rice production is expected to decline as the paddy crop in South Asian and Southeast Asian nations is being adversely affected by the El Niño weather pattern.

According to a report by the International Grains Council (IGC), global rice production for the 2026-27 marketing season is projected to fall to 536 million tonnes—a decrease of 11 million tonnes (1.10 crore tonnes) from the estimated 547 million tonnes produced in the 2025-26 season.

The IGC report indicates that this would be the first decline in global rice production in a decade, with India’s output potentially dropping by 6 million tonnes. Meanwhile, global rice consumption is expected to rise by 1 percent, driven by increased demand in Sub-Saharan Africa and various Asian countries.

With consumption outpacing production, global rice stocks are set to decline for the first time in four years; however, stock levels will remain relatively high. Global trade in rice for the 2026-27 season is projected to reach 61 million tonnes.