Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Could Mitigate El Niño's Impact

13-Jul-2026 06:06 PM

Mumbai: A private weather forecasting agency has stated that while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) had remained neutral until now, there are indications that it is shifting towards a positive phase. In July, the dipole is expected to rise slightly above the neutral level, with its intensity projected to increase significantly—potentially reaching a 90 percent positive level—by September.

This shift could dampen the impact of the El Niño weather cycle. The Indian Ocean Dipole refers to the difference in sea-surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean; the higher it rises above the neutral level, the greater the likelihood of good rainfall in India. Conversely, a negative dipole reduces the chances of rainfall.

A positive shift in the tropical Indian Ocean Dipole is considered auspicious and favorable for the Indian monsoon, as it significantly counteracts the influence of El Niño originating from the tropical Pacific Ocean. The weather agency notes that although the Indian Ocean Dipole has begun to turn positive, the pace of this change is currently slow,

and it may take until September to fully establish a positive phase. Meanwhile, El Niño is likely to remain active during July and August, raising concerns about a potential deficit in monsoon rainfall across the country. Reduced rainfall could adversely affect the sowing and growth of Kharif crops. Sowing acreage in several states is currently lagging significantly behind last year's figures, a matter of serious concern.