News Capsule: Signs of Recovery in Jeera
28-Jan-2026 10:21 AM
News Capsule: Signs of Recovery in Jeera
★ After nearly two years of prolonged decline, the jeera market is showing clear signs of recovery. Prices have improved due to lower acreage, stronger domestic and export demand, and limited availability.
★ In 2023, jeera prices touched a record high of INR 65,900 per quintal. However, higher sowing and a rise in global supply led to a sharp correction, with prices falling to around INR 18,520 per quintal in 2025. High prices had encouraged increased production not only in India but also in China, which added pressure on the market.
★ Conditions appear to be changing in the current season. Jeera acreage has declined by around 12%. Sowing in Gujarat is down by more than 16%, while Rajasthan has seen a fall of about 10%. Farmers have shifted towards MSP-backed crops such as chana, wheat and mustard. As a result, production is estimated at around 8.0–8.1 million bags, against consumption of nearly 7.0 million bags.
★ Stocks are also limited. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 2.0 million bags, but the quantity readily available for sale is low. Meanwhile, domestic demand has strengthened due to the marriage season, festivals and advance buying ahead of Ramzan. Export demand has also improved, supported by a weaker rupee and a lower GST rate of 5%.
★ This change in sentiment is reflected on NCDEX, where jeera futures rose by about 21% between November and January, accompanied by higher volatility.
★ Looking ahead, fresh arrivals between February and April may bring some softness. However, analysts believe the downside will be limited due to weather concerns, delayed harvesting and lower stocks. In the short term, jeera prices are expected to trade in the range of INR 27,500–28,500 per quintal.
★ Going forward, the market will closely watch sowing trends in China and global developments. A sharp rise in Chinese output or any escalation of tensions in West Asia could impact export demand. Overall, jeera prices in 2026 are expected to remain better than the levels seen in 2024–25.