★ Australia's 2026-27 desi chickpea crop is expected to exceed the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecast of 1.08 million tonnes, with trade and industry estimates ranging between 1.2 and 1.5 million tonnes. Additional rainfall in late May encouraged more planting, increasing the crop area. However, final production will depend on weather conditions over the next 20–30 days, including frost risk and spring rainfall.

★ Even if production exceeds the official forecast, it is still expected to be significantly lower than last season's record crop of around 2.19 million tonnes. A smaller Australian harvest could reduce supplies to India and increase pressure on the Indian government to reconsider import duties on desi chickpeas if domestic availability tightens.

★ Late rainfall in Queensland and northern New South Wales allowed additional sowing after an initially dry start, improving production prospects beyond the official estimate. Meanwhile, with Indian chana prices currently trading below the Minimum Support Price (MSP), any decision on reducing import duties is likely to be considered only around October–November.