★ The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall in August, raising concerns over food inflation. Experts believe vegetables are likely to witness the first price increase, as they have short crop cycles and are highly sensitive to weather changes. Prices of tomatoes, onions, beans, cauliflower, cabbage and leafy vegetables could rise if rainfall remains deficient.

★ Kharif pulses such as tur, urad and moong may also face price pressure since their cultivation depends heavily on monsoon rainfall. Rice production could be affected as well, but prices are unlikely to rise immediately due to adequate irrigation coverage and government buffer stocks.

★ Below-normal rainfall may also impact domestic soybean and groundnut production, putting pressure on edible oil prices. However, India meets nearly 60% of its edible oil requirement through imports, which could help moderate the impact. IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall during August–September, although July rainfall was 1% above normal.