Maize prices expected to rise due to fears of production decline

New Delhi. Domestic maize production is likely to decline during the current Kharif season due to a reduction of approximately 2 lakh hectares in the sowing area and crop damage caused by natural calamities in certain regions. The production outlook for the upcoming Rabi season also remains uncertain. Furthermore, the use of maize in ethanol production is expected to increase. Industry analysts predict a significant rise in maize prices in the near future; it would not be surprising if prices surge to the ₹3,000–3,100 per quintal range during the lean supply season.

Analysts anticipate a decline in maize yields—both in India and globally—during the 2026-27 season due to adverse weather conditions and natural disasters. The impact of the El Niño weather cycle may persist until March 2027, potentially affecting maize production in India during both the Kharif and Rabi seasons.

According to an analyst, a carry-over stock of approximately 3 million tonnes (30 lakh tonnes) is expected to be available at the start of the new Kharif marketing season, whereas the decline in production could exceed this volume. Maize crops are suffering significant damage in states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana due to the lack of timely and adequate rainfall. Given these factors, a softening of prices appears unlikely. While the market may stabilize temporarily due to a strong influx of new produce, prices could begin to rise once the supply pressure eases.

Currently, the average price of maize ranges from ₹2,300 to ₹2,400 per quintal; this level is likely to hold until the new crop harvest is fully underway, after which the market is expected to strengthen. This time, the use of sugarcane-based feedstocks for ethanol exports may be restricted, likely leading to increased use of maize. In August, the average price of maize stood at ₹2,250 per quintal. There is a consensus regarding the market's upward trend.