Rice production likely to decline by 5-7% in Kharif season

New Delhi: Rice production during this year's Kharif season is estimated to fall to 1170–1180 lakh tonnes—a decline of 5–7% from the previous year's output of approximately 1248 lakh tonnes—due to a nearly 4% drop in the area under paddy cultivation and deficient rainfall across several states.

Data from the Union Ministry of Agriculture indicates that the total area under paddy cultivation reached 430.93 lakh hectares by September 25, 2026, which is 16.32 lakh hectares (or about 4%) less than the 447.25 lakh hectares recorded during the same period last year. The five-year average area for paddy cultivation is estimated at 405.36 lakh hectares.

A decline in paddy acreage has been observed in several states; specifically, the cultivation area has shrunk by 4.62 lakh hectares in Karnataka and 4.39 lakh hectares in Telangana. Additionally, states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu have seen a reduction in paddy acreage ranging from 1.00 to 1.80 lakh hectares.

Conversely, states like Assam, Odisha, and Gujarat have recorded a marginal increase in paddy acreage. However, given the substantial rice stocks held in the central pool, the projected 5–7% drop in production is unlikely to significantly impact overall availability.