Weak and erratic monsoon rains are expected to put increasing pressure on the production of major grain crops in India during the 2026/27 season. According to a USDA FAS report, lower rainfall is expected to reduce both rice and maize production.

Rice

India’s rice production in 2026/27 is estimated at 147 million tonnes, down from 154 million tonnes in 2025/26. This represents an estimated decline of around 4.5%, or 7 million tonnes.

Despite the expected decline in production, the estimate for rice exports has been maintained at 25 million tonnes. Large government stockpiles are expected to allow India to sustain high export volumes. The government is also releasing additional rice into the domestic market, which could help reduce government inventories while maintaining the competitiveness of Indian rice in global markets.

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Maize

Maize production is expected to decline even more sharply. Production in 2026/27 is estimated at 50 million tonnes, compared with 55 million tonnes in the previous season. This represents an estimated decline of 5 million tonnes.

Lower planted acreage and insufficient rainfall are expected to affect yields. As a result, India’s maize exports in 2026/27 are estimated at 15 million tonnes, down from 25 million tonnes in the previous season—a decline of 10 million tonnes, or 40%.

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Overall Impact

Combined, rice and maize production is estimated to decline by 12 million tonnes in 2026/27.

Following a weak monsoon in June, rainfall improved in July but weakened again in August. The possibility of below-normal rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season continues to raise concerns about crop production and overall grain supplies in India.