Global Wheat Production Estimated at 820 Million Tons

25-May-2026 12:53 PM

London. In light of the potential impact of El Niño in certain countries and the likelihood of reduced fertilizer consumption, the International Grains Council (IGC) has projected in its latest monthly (May) report that global wheat production for the 2026-27 season is likely to contract to 820 million tons. This figure is 1 million tons lower than the estimate in the April report and 25 million tons lower than the revised production figure of 845 million tons for the 2025-26 season.

Australia faces the possibility of a fertilizer shortage this season. Similarly, there are apprehensions that wheat crops in the United States and Canada could be adversely affected by unfavorable weather conditions. Doubts also persist regarding the prospects of a robust wheat harvest in Argentina and the European Union. Currently, there are no immediate threats in Asian countries, as the harvest has already concluded there, and the next sowing cycle is scheduled to commence in September-October.

The IGC has projected that global wheat consumption during the 2026-27 season is likely to rise to 827 million tons—an increase of 2 million tons over the April estimate of 825 million tons, and 5 million tons higher than the total projected production.

However, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, global wheat carryover stocks are expected to decline; these stocks are estimated to drop to 282 million tons by the end of the 2026-27 season.

For the 2025-26 season, the Council has estimated global wheat production at 845 million tons and global utilization at 820 million tons, while also projecting that final carryover stocks for the season are likely to rise to 288 million tons.