Projected 7-Million-Tonne Decline in Rice Production

08-Sep-2026 04:00 PM

New Delhi: Rice production is likely to decline due to a significant drop in the area under paddy cultivation during the current Kharif season and a weak monsoon in South India. According to the Indian representative office of the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA Post), India's rice production was estimated at 154 million tonnes for the 2025-26 marketing season, whereas total production is expected to fall to 147 million tonnes in the 2026-27 marketing season (October-September).

However, this decline in production will not impact India's rice export performance, nor will it create complications regarding supply and availability in the domestic market. The USDA Post projects rice exports from India at 25 million tonnes for 2026-27, matching the estimate for 2025-26.

According to official data, the total area under paddy cultivation reached 42.18 million hectares by September 4, 2026, during the current Kharif season; this was 1.637 million hectares less than the 43.819 million hectares recorded during the same period last year.

Nevertheless, this acreage remains significantly higher than the five-year average. Last year, the area under paddy cultivation had surged to a new record level. In India, paddy is cultivated during the Kharif, Rabi, and Zaid (summer) seasons.