Pakistan’s Troubles May Rise After India Suspends Indus Water Treaty
24-Apr-2025 03:24 PM
New Delhi. In the wake of the recent Pahalgam terrorist attack, the Indian government has taken a series of decisive actions, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a move expected to severely impact Pakistan’s agriculture and water supply.
According to trade analysts, this step could prove to be a strategic "master stroke" by India, as water levels in Pakistan’s key dams and reservoirs—including the Tarbela and Mangla Dams—are already alarmingly low.
Currently, Tarbela Dam, located in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, is holding only 30% of its storage capacity, while Mangla Dam is also nearing critical levels.
Experts warn that at least 4 feet of water is required in the dams to keep canals functioning and prevent agricultural distress.
Monsoon rains in Pakistan are expected to begin only in the last week of June, and until then, the country depends heavily on glacial meltwater from the Himalayas, which typically starts flowing from around May 15. The Indus River system is vital for irrigating vast areas of land, especially in Punjab and Sindh provinces, where cotton and paddy are the main crops.
The suspension of water flow from India could severely affect cotton sowing, which begins around April 15 in Punjab. Without timely irrigation, germination and early crop development could fail, further reducing cotton output, which has already dipped to around 7 million bales annually in Pakistan.
The impact on rice production is expected to be even more significant, as transplanting of paddy seedlings starts in mid-May, and water shortages at this critical stage could jeopardize the entire crop cycle.
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, has withstood decades of conflict between the two nations, and its suspension marks a significant escalation.
If India holds back glacial and rain-fed water in its reservoirs until September, as experts predict it legally can, Pakistan may face a serious agricultural and economic crisis during the upcoming Southwest Monsoon season.