Cumin Expected to Rise Again Due to Strong Demand from China

24-Apr-2025 07:23 PM

Mumbai. The Indian cumin market is likely to see a fresh upward trend soon, driven by an expected increase in demand from China. While there is sporadic interest from buyers in the Gulf and other markets, Chinese importers have so far remained largely inactive, keeping domestic market prices stable with limited fluctuations.

However, as China’s cumin stocks are dwindling and its local crop is still months away, buying interest from Chinese traders is likely to pick up — potentially boosting prices.

India continues to be the world’s largest and only major supplier of cumin at present. Other producing-exporting countries — Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Afghanistan — are not expected to bring their new crops to the market before June-July. This gives Indian exporters an advantage in the short term.

In the 2024–25 season, India’s cumin production is projected to be normal, unlike the unexpected spike witnessed in 2023–24.

The sowing area in Gujarat has dropped by 15%, coming down to about 4.77 lakh hectares, and Rajasthan has also seen reduced acreage. However, the yield and quality of this season’s crop have shown some improvement due to favorable weather.

Despite better production conditions, export demand and prices have not yet seen the expected rise, and exporters remain cautious.

The daily arrival of cumin at Gujarat’s key Unjha Mandi is averaging 35,000 to 45,000 bags, with normal trading and only slight price changes.

Trade analysts note that cumin exports were strong in FY 2024–25, with volumes expected to cross 2 lakh tonnes, significantly higher than in FY 2023–24.

With stocks running low in Turkey and political unrest in Syria, India is well-positioned to meet global demand. Once Chinese buying resumes, a price surge in the cumin market is likely.