News Capsule: Monsoon Uncertainty Persists; Tur and Coarse Cereals Face Highest Stress: Crisil
13-Jul-2026 10:18 AM
News Capsule: Monsoon Uncertainty Persists; Tur and Coarse Cereals Face Highest Stress: Crisil
★ The revival of the monsoon during the first week of July has provided relief after the dry conditions witnessed in June, but risks to the kharif crop are far from over. In its latest Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter (DRIP) report, Crisil said uneven rainfall distribution, the looming threat of El Niño, and delayed kharif sowing continue to pose significant concerns for the agricultural sector.
★ According to Crisil's DRIP assessment as of July 8, Karnataka, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana are experiencing the highest agricultural stress due to rainfall deficiency, while Haryana is facing relatively lower stress. The DRIP indicator evaluates agricultural vulnerability by combining rainfall deficiency with irrigation coverage, providing a more realistic assessment of crop and regional stress. A higher DRIP score indicates a greater risk to agricultural output.
★ Among major crops, tur (pigeon pea) and coarse cereals are under the highest stress. In contrast, sugarcane remains relatively insulated due to better irrigation coverage, while groundnut and soybean are comparatively less affected. Bajra, maize, and rice are also experiencing lower stress levels than tur.
★ Although widespread rainfall during early July has reduced the country's rainfall deficit, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected July rainfall to remain about 6% below the long-period average. This suggests that rainfall activity could weaken during the second half of the month, making the further progress of the monsoon critical for kharif crop development and production.
★ Crisil emphasized that the pace of monsoon advancement alone is not enough to ensure a good crop. The quantity, spatial distribution, and timing of rainfall are equally important. If rainfall remains uneven or prolonged dry spells occur in the coming weeks, kharif production and the rural economy could come under renewed pressure.