★ The strong revival of the southwest monsoon during the first week of July has significantly reduced the country's rainfall deficit, raising hopes for better kharif sowing and crop production. However, agricultural experts believe the threat of El Niño has not completely receded, and weather conditions during July and August will remain crucial for the crop season.

★ By the end of June, India's rainfall deficit had widened to nearly 40%. Following widespread rains in early July, the deficit narrowed to around 12% by July 9. Despite this improvement, rainfall remains below normal in several districts, and kharif sowing is still about 20% lower than the corresponding period last year. Paddy, cotton, and oilseeds have recorded the largest decline in acreage.

★ Experts caution that cumulative rainfall figures alone do not provide the complete picture. What matters more is where the rain falls, how evenly it is distributed, and at which stage of crop growth it occurs. They warn that El Niño could strengthen further during July and August, with its most significant impact likely to be felt during October and November.

★ The widespread and well-distributed rainfall received during the first week of July is expected to accelerate kharif sowing in northern India while supporting the growth of crops already planted in southern and western regions. However, experts warn that a prolonged dry spell later in the season could adversely affect crop yields.

★ They also stress the need for effective implementation of district-level contingency plans. Key priorities include ensuring the availability of short-duration and drought-tolerant seed varieties, diesel for irrigation, efficient water management, adequate fodder and drinking water for livestock, and timely weather advisories for farmers.

★ Experts believe that if rainfall remains well distributed between July and September, kharif crop prospects could improve considerably. However, uneven rainfall or extended dry spells could adversely affect the productivity of rain-fed crops, particularly oilseeds, pulses, and cotton.