News Capsule: El Nino Impact Persists, but Low-Pressure Systems Reduce Monsoon Deficit
11-Aug-2026 01:08 PM
News Capsule: El Nino Impact Persists, but Low-Pressure Systems Reduce Monsoon Deficit
★ El Nino continues to pressure India’s southwest monsoon, but frequent low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal in July brought good rainfall to central India. As a result, the country’s cumulative monsoon deficit narrowed from 36% in June to around 12% as of August 10.
★ India received 1% above-normal rainfall in July, after June rainfall was 35.4% below normal. Overall rainfall from June 1 to August 10 remained 12% below normal. Central India received normal rainfall, while northwest India recorded a 12% deficit, south peninsular India 18%, and east and northeast India 26%.
★ Rainfall remained significantly deficient in Bihar at 36% below normal, Punjab at 35%, Andhra Pradesh at 34%, Jharkhand at 25% and Uttar Pradesh at 21%.
★ Adequate rainfall in central India has supported kharif sowing. Total kharif acreage has reached 96.79 million hectares, only 1.81% below last year, with paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane among the major crops.
★ The India Meteorological Department expects another low-pressure system to develop around August 13 over the north Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Bengal-Bangladesh coast. This could keep the monsoon active through the third week of August.
★ However, below-normal rainfall remains a concern for September. El Nino could strengthen during the month, while a possible positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may partially offset its negative impact on the monsoon.
★ Overall, the monsoon has improved from the severe deficit seen in June, but uneven rainfall distribution and the possibility of weaker rains in September remain key risks for kharif crops.