★ Lower maize and sugarcane acreage during the kharif season could increase the use of rice for ethanol production in India. According to industry sources, rice’s share in the ethanol feedstock mix could rise to 15–20% during the current season. At present, rice accounts for around 26.79% of ethanol feedstock, while sugarcane accounts for about 28%. Maize acreage has declined by around 4%, while sugarcane acreage is down 0.85%.

★ Concerns over sugarcane availability have increased due to weak rainfall in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Sugar prices have also reached record levels. In such a situation, the government may encourage sugar mills to reduce ethanol production from sugarcane juice and B-heavy molasses and shift towards grain-based feedstocks.

★ Rice availability remains comfortable for now. As of June 1, government stocks of rice, including paddy, stood at around 6.843 crore tonnes, significantly above the buffer requirement of 1.35 crore tonnes as of July 1.

★ To maintain the 20% ethanol blending target, the government has allocated 72 lakh tonnes of rice from government stocks to distilleries for the next ethanol supply year, up from 52 lakh tonnes in 2025-26. In addition, 55 lakh tonnes of 100% broken rice has been made available through e-auctions.

★ However, if deficient rainfall affects grain production and yields, rising rice demand from the ethanol sector could put additional pressure on food prices.