Global Rice Production Forecast to Rise, Driven by India and China

25-Apr-2026 12:16 PM

New Delhi. The International Grains Council (IGC) has projected that global rice production in the 2026-27 season is likely to rise to 548 million tonnes—an increase of 4 million tonnes over the revised production figure of 544 million tonnes for the 2025-26 season. This growth is expected to be driven primarily by improved production in India and China. It is noteworthy that India and China are the world's two leading rice-producing nations, while India also stands as the largest exporter of this vital food grain.

Conversely, global rice consumption is estimated at 544 million tonnes. Consequently, in the 2026-27 season, global rice production is projected to exceed total potential utilization by 4 million tonnes, resulting in a corresponding increase in carryover stocks.

According to the IGC report, global rice carryover stocks are expected to rise from 193 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season to reach 197 million tonnes in the 2026-27 season.

The Council has also projected an increase of 2 million tonnes in global rice trade (imports and exports). According to the Council's latest report, global rice trade is expected to reach approximately 59 million tonnes during the 2025-26 marketing season, potentially rising to 61 million tonnes in the 2026-27 season.

This would mark the first instance in which global rice trade surpasses the 60-million-tonne (6 crore tonnes) mark.

Import demand for rice is expected to remain robust across African and Asian nations, potentially fostering an environment of firm prices. However, persistently high shipping costs could exacerbate difficulties for importing countries, while also leading to intense competition among major exporting nations.