Domestic Cotton Production Projected to Stagnate at 280 Lakh Bales

Mumbai. The Cotton Association of India (CAI), a leading trade body, has projected that domestic cotton production for the current 2026-27 marketing season (October–September) will fall by approximately 14%—from 325.69 lakh bales in the 2025-26 season—to 280 lakh bales (each bale weighing 170 kg). According to the association, the decline in total domestic cotton production is driven by a reduction in the area under cultivation and severe drought conditions in key producing states, including Maharashtra, Telangana, and Karnataka.

In its initial estimate for the 2026-27 season—covering cotton output and the supply-demand balance sheet—the association stated that the total availability of cotton, comprising production, opening stocks, and imports, could reach 417.88 lakh bales. This figure includes 280 lakh bales from domestic production, 72.88 lakh bales in opening stocks, and an estimated 65 lakh bales in imports. The central government has exempted cotton imports from customs duty until December 31, 2026.

The association noted that during the 2025-26 marketing season, total cotton imports into the country surged to 71.60 lakh bales—the highest level seen in at least two decades. If the deadline for duty-free imports is extended beyond December 31, further quantities of cotton could be sourced from abroad.

It is worth noting that India imports cotton from countries such as the United States, Brazil, and Australia, primarily due to the high quality of their produce.

The association has maintained its estimate for domestic cotton consumption at 365 lakh bales, while projecting that exports from the country will decline to 12 lakh bales. Cotton stocks at the end of the season are estimated to be 40.88 lakh bales.