CPO Price Increase Forecast for Next Year: Dorab Mistry
09-Nov-2024 05:54 PM
CPO Price Increase Forecast for Next Year: Dorab Mistry
Bandung – The price of crude palm oil (CPO) is expected to rise further next year. Dorab Mistry stated that the projected price of CPO in the Malaysian market could reach RM5,000 per ton by June 2025.
"I believe this price could surpass its peak. Therefore, we need to be prepared for higher prices," Mistry said on November 8, 2024, during the 20th Indonesian Palm Oil Conference and 2025 Price Outlook (IPOC 2024) in Nusa Dua, Bali.
Mistry also pointed out that the rise in CPO prices is driven by increasing demand from the biofuel industry, coupled with a decline in CPO production in both Indonesia and Malaysia.
He warned that the imbalance between rising demand and falling production could lead to further increases in palm oil prices in the future.
Additionally, Mistry highlighted the potential reduction in Indonesian CPO exports due to the new B40 policy as another concerning factor. "This is a very serious issue because whenever Malaysia and Indonesia cannot export CPO, it impacts the global market. Moreover, Thailand has also announced that they are unable to export this year," he said.
In line with Mistry’s statement, Nagaraj Meda , Managing Director of Transgraph Consulting Pvt Ltd , stated that CPO prices could reach RM5,400 per metric ton in the first quarter of 2025.
"Our forecast is that prices could reach RM5,400 per metric ton in the first three months of 2025," Meda said during the IPOC 2024.
Meda further noted that prices might remain stagnant or even decline after that, depending on future palm oil productivity.
Earlier, Eddy Martono , Chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Entrepreneurs Association (GAPKI) , pointed out a decline in palm oil production in 2024 compared to the previous year. By August 2024, Indonesia's national palm oil production stood at 34.7 million tons , down from 36.2 million tons in the same period of the previous year.
"As the world's largest palm oil producer, Indonesia has experienced stagnation in palm oil production in recent years," Martono said at IPOC 2024.
Given all these factors, the possibility of rising palm oil prices remains, which could have a significant impact on the global market in the coming year.