The USDA's 2024-25 global rice production estimate reflects a promising increase in production, largely driven by better yields in key rice-producing countries like India and China. The global rice production is expected to rise to 533.81 million tonnes, up from 522.18 million tonnes in the 2023-24 season, marking a growth of 116.30 lakh tonnes.

Key highlights from the USDA's report include:

1. Global Surplus: At the start of the 2024-25 season, the global rice stock was estimated at 17,929 crore tonnes. After factoring in production, usage, and imports, the global surplus stock of rice is expected to rise to 182.65 million tonnes by the end of the season, compared to 179.29 million tonnes in the previous season.

2. Increased Production in India and China:

   • India's rice production is expected to jump by 71.70 lakh tonnes, from 137.83 million tonnes in 2023-24 to 145 million tonnes in 2024-25.
   • China's production is expected to increase by 1.38 million tonnes, from 144.62 million tonnes to 146 million tonnes.

3. Decline in Vietnam: Vietnam's rice production is expected to decline by 6.40 lakh tonnes, from 27.14 million tonnes to 26.5 million tonnes.

4. Stable Production in Indonesia: Rice production in Indonesia is expected to remain stable at 34 million tonnes, similar to the previous season.

5. Global Usage and Trade:

   • Global rice consumption (total use) is expected to be around 530.46 million tonnes, with 53.77 million tonnes expected to be imported worldwide.
   • Rice exports will play a significant role, with 54.85 million tonnes forecasted to be traded globally.

This rise in production, particularly in major producers like India and China, may help stabilize the global rice market, even as some countries like Vietnam see a decline in production. It also suggests a healthy surplus stock, which could ensure steady global rice availability in the coming season.