Apprehension of Impact on Kharif Production if Rainfall Deficit Exceeds 10 Percent

27-Jul-2026 04:33 PM

New Delhi: The Central Government states that whenever monsoon rainfall drops by more than 10 percent, the likelihood of an adverse impact on Kharif crop production increases. While a rainfall deficit of 10–12 percent does not typically result in a significant drop in output, a more severe deficit can lead to a substantial decline in Kharif food grain production.

Production is significantly affected when the rainfall deficit exceeds 10 percent of the long-term average at an all-India level. The years 1982, 1987, 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2015 witnessed either the impact of El Niño or severe drought conditions. During these years, rainfall was 12 to 22 percent below the normal average, and Kharif production was impacted to varying degrees, with the decline in output ranging from moderate to severe.

According to the Union Minister of State for Agriculture, the adverse impact of weather on Kharif production has been less pronounced in recent years due to the expansion and development of irrigation facilities across the country. There has been a rapid increase in the use and adoption of improved and drought-resistant crop varieties. Weather forecasting has improved, and farmers are quickly adopting modern crop management techniques. Furthermore, disaster management plans are being implemented on a large scale by states, and the Central Government is intervening in a timely manner.

Sowing for various crops during the current Kharif season is underway, although the first advance estimate of production has not yet been released. The acreage for crops such as paddy, pulses, oilseeds, coarse cereals, and cotton is lagging behind last year's figures. The Meteorological Department has projected a possibility of monsoon rainfall being 10 percent below the normal average, whereas a leading private weather agency has forecast a deficit of 15–16 percent.