Weak Monsoon Feared to Impact Kharif Crop Production

15-Apr-2026 01:08 PM

New Delhi. Due to the potential onset and activity of the El Niño weather cycle, the Southwest Monsoon is projected to be weak this year, with rainfall expected to fall below normal average levels. This could adversely affect the production of Kharif-season crops—particularly pulses, soybeans, and cotton.

In fact, the majority of these crops are cultivated in states where irrigation facilities are relatively limited. However, the paddy crop is unlikely to be significantly impacted, as it is predominantly cultivated in irrigated regions.

The Meteorological Department has forecast that, with a margin of error of ±5 percent, rainfall during the monsoon season (June–September 2026) will amount to only 92 percent of the long-period average.

Should there be a rainfall deficit or prolonged dry spells between rain events, the sowing and growth of Kharif crops could face significant disruptions. Consequently, this raises the likelihood of a decline in production and a rise in food inflation.

A shortage of rainfall poses a heightened risk not only in unirrigated areas but also in states equipped with robust irrigation infrastructure. Water levels in dams and reservoirs have already dropped significantly, and summer temperatures have begun to rise.

If adequate pre-monsoon showers do not occur, the early sowing of Kharif crops will become increasingly difficult. In Maharashtra—a leading producer of pulses, soybeans, and cotton—irrigation facilities are available in only 43 percent of the cultivable area.

The situation in other key producing states is similarly unencouraging. Although Indian farmers are certainly not lacking in zeal and enthusiasm, favorable weather conditions remain absolutely essential.