The sugar market is expected to remain mixed for the time being

31-Oct-2025 11:13 AM

Mumbai. Although the Food Ministry has set a domestic sugar sales quota of only 2 million tons for November, which is 400,000 tons less than the October quota of 2.4 million tons and 200,000 tons less than the November 2024 quota of 2.2 million tons, a significant increase in prices is unlikely.

Meanwhile, the State Supported Price (SAP) for sugarcane in Uttar Pradesh has also been increased by ₹30 per quintal, which will naturally increase sugar input costs. This should have some positive impact on domestic market prices.

The domestic industry has limited sugar stocks, but domestic production is expected to increase significantly during the current 2025-26 marketing season (October-September).

ISMA states that the average production cost of sugar has risen to over ₹4,000 per quintal, but its ex-factory minimum selling price (MSP) has remained stable at ₹3,100 per quintal since 2019. Meanwhile, the Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) for sugarcane has been regularly increasing.

The government has limited the supply quota for sugarcane-based ethanol, forcing millers to increase sugar production.

It was previously estimated that sugarcane ingredients equivalent to 4.5-5 million tons of sugar would be used for ethanol production during the 2025-26 marketing season, but the government's fixed ethanol quota will require only 3.4 million tons of sugar to produce.

The peak festival season in the country has ended, and jaggery production has also begun to increase, so sugar prices are likely to remain mixed.