The price of yellow peas in Canada is not expected to rise significantly in the near future due to several factors influencing the market.

Despite strong export performance from August to October 2024, Canada has large stocks of yellow peas available for export. This surplus, coupled with ongoing uncertainty about customs duties in India—the major importer of yellow peas—adds to the pressure on prices.

India’s decision on whether to extend the deadline for duty-free imports of yellow peas, which ends on December 31, 2024, remains unclear.

Without an extension, import duties might be imposed, which could further dampen demand for Canadian peas in India. Furthermore, Canada is facing increasing competition from Russia in the Indian and Chinese markets, making it harder for Canadian exporters to secure contracts at higher prices.

In Western Canada, yellow peas have maintained a stable price range between $10.50-11.00 per bushel. Other varieties, such as green peas, have higher prices due to decreasing stocks in Canada and the U.S. and strong demand from foreign markets. Green peas are priced between $16.50-17.00 per bushel.

However, the uncertainty over the Indian market, which does not import green or maple peas, and the potential for import duties on yellow peas, are creating a challenging environment for exporters.

The current price stability and softer demand suggest that yellow pea prices may not rise significantly unless there is a change in market conditions, such as an extension of India's duty-free import deadline or a shift in global demand.

If prices remain low, Canadian farmers may reconsider planting yellow peas for the next season, potentially reducing future production.