The Monsoon Has Arrived, But...

06-Jun-2026 10:38 AM

The Southwest Monsoon reached the Indian mainland—specifically the southern coast of Kerala—on June 4, the date revised by the Meteorological Department. Although its arrival was initially projected for May 26, certain weather conditions delayed its progression, first to Sri Lanka and subsequently to India. Overall, the monsoon has arrived in India three days behind its scheduled date of June 1.

While this delay is not particularly significant, the driving forces facilitating the monsoon's advance are currently weak, which could lead to substantial delays in its arrival across various parts of the country. While heavy monsoon rains have commenced in Kerala and Mahe, the system may face difficulties moving northward along the western coast.

Consequently, rainfall is likely to be delayed in states such as Maharashtra and Gujarat. The other arm of the monsoon is advancing towards the northeastern region, but its progress is sluggish this time as well.

Although the total area under Kharif crop cultivation is expected to remain normal, there are likely to be shifts in the acreage of specific crops—with some seeing an increase and others a decrease. Farmers' enthusiasm for maize cultivation may wane; the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for the crop has been raised by a mere ₹10 per quintal, and wholesale market prices are currently quite low.

Conversely, the acreage for cotton, soybean, sorghum (jowar), pearl millet (bajra), finger millet (ragi), and pulses is expected to rise.

There is uncertainty regarding paddy cultivation, as the area sown could fluctuate depending on monsoon conditions. Rainfall across the country during the four-month period from June to September is projected to be only 90 percent of the long-period average.