Sunflower Oil Prices Likely to Remain High Next Year

31-Dec-2025 11:09 AM

Moscow. The global sunflower oil market is currently awaiting a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, for which negotiations are ongoing.

However, prior to any agreement, severe Russian attacks on key Ukrainian ports are causing such significant damage to infrastructure that sunflower oil export shipments from there may face considerable delays and difficulties. The crucial Ukrainian port of Odesa has been heavily damaged by Russian shelling.

According to trade analysts, December shipments of sunflower oil are already significantly delayed, and attention has now shifted to January-February 2026 shipments.

Traditionally, sunflower oil export shipments from Ukraine slow down during the winter months of December and January.

This leads to a reduction in stocks in importing countries. It appears that stocks in India will fall considerably, which could lead to a sharp increase in sunflower oil prices in the domestic market.

Some traders are reportedly contracting for January-February shipments at $1331-1337 per ton on a CIF India basis. The current offer is said to be around $1345 per ton.

From March, the new sunflower crop in Argentina will be harvested and its oil will enter the global market.

This will increase competition and may lead to some softening of prices. However, in the July-August and September quarter, the global market price of sunflower oil is expected to rise again and could reach $1400 per ton.

During the 2025-26 season, sunflower production in Ukraine decreased to only about 10 million tons, while in Russia it increased to around 17 million tons.

Russia is expected to implement a 37% export duty on sunflower oil in January 2026. Importers should pay close attention to upcoming positions and contracts.