Signs of a Bullish Trend in Kabuli Chana; Market Supported by Weak Crop and Costly Imports

A bullish sentiment appears to be strengthening in the Kabuli Chana (chickpea) market for the near term. The domestic market is receiving continuous support from the likelihood of a weak new crop (expected in February-March), high prices in international markets (including Canada), and rising import costs. Additionally, recent exports from Madhya Pradesh to certain countries, alongside sustained export inquiries, are bolstering the market.

Limited Availability Fuels the Rally

Most of the old imported stock at Indian ports has already been cleared. Meanwhile, Kabuli Chana arriving from Canada is trading at high prices at major ports like Mumbai, Mundra, and Kolkata. Due to high import costs, the availability of imported stock remains limited in North Indian markets, including Delhi. Under current conditions, the possibility of a further price rise of ₹800–1,000 per quintal cannot be ruled out.

Sustained Export Demand

Demand for Indian produce is being supported by a depletion of old stocks in major international Kabuli Chana-producing nations. Inquiries for Indian Kabuli Chana persist from markets such as Turkey, Iran, and Syria. Consequently, significant quantities have recently been exported from the Indore and Bhopal regions. With both export demand and domestic consumption remaining steady, pressure on available stocks is mounting; limited selling in the markets could lead to further price strengthening.

Significant Drop in Production Forecasted

Market concerns regarding Kabuli Chana production also persist. While national production typically ranges between 30 and 31 lakh metric tonnes in normal years, it is estimated to drop to approximately 22–23 lakh metric tonnes this year. Despite the availability of old stocks, current supplies appear insufficient when considering domestic consumption and export demand. This situation is reinforcing a bullish sentiment in the market.

Firm Prices in Maharashtra

In Maharashtra, prices for unsorted, medium-quality Kabuli chickpeas have reached approximately ₹7,200–7,700 per quintal. Prices for bold-sized varieties have also risen by about ₹500–600 per quintal. Prices for lower-quality stock have also strengthened, commensurate with their quality. Due to the high cost of domestic chickpeas, demand for lighter and small-seeded Kabuli chickpeas is also improving. High prices of other pulses have further boosted Kabuli chickpea consumption to some extent.

Time Remaining for New Crop

There is still a gap of about five months before the arrival of the new Kabuli chickpea crop. Sowing is expected to commence next month. Recent rainfall in areas that previously faced a deficit has improved conditions for the upcoming sowing season. However, actual production of the new crop will depend on post-monsoon weather conditions, the area sown, and yield per hectare.

Market Outlook

Limited current availability, potential low production, expensive imports, and export demand are the four key factors driving the bullish trend in Kabuli chickpeas. Market strength is likely to persist in the near term due to the depletion of old stocks and the long wait for the new crop.