Prospects for a Recovery in Sugar Prices in the Near Future

15-Apr-2026 07:55 PM

Mumbai: The process of sugarcane crushing and sugar production has largely concluded, and the number of operational units has now dwindled to a negligible level. While sugar production has been marginally higher than in the previous season, it cannot be considered particularly encouraging.

This sends a clear signal that sugarcane yields fell significantly short of government estimates, and sugar production failed to meet the expectations of industry associations. Broadly speaking, it is being suggested that sugar production may fall slightly short of domestic demand and requirements.

Consequently, this could lead to a reduction in the surplus stock currently held by the industry. However, ISMA has ruled out the possibility of a decline in stock levels.

Export demand for sugar has begun to strengthen. In Brazil—the world's leading sugar producer and exporter—sugar production is projected to decline during the current 2026-27 marketing season, as millers are expected to divert a larger quantity of sugarcane toward ethanol production.

Furthermore, should the impact of the El Niño weather cycle prove severe, sugar production in Australia, Thailand, and Pakistan could also be adversely affected. Even within India, apprehensions are being raised regarding a potential decline in both sugarcane and sugar production.

Sugar prices in the international market have started to firm up, potentially creating an opportunity for Indian millers to boost their exports. If lasting peace is restored in West Asia, the pace of sugar exports from India to the Gulf nations could accelerate.

Overall, the outlook for both the domestic and global sugar markets in the coming months is expected to remain favorable for the industry.

Over the past few weeks, domestic sugar prices have remained relatively stable—fluctuating only marginally within a narrow range—but they are now poised to strengthen somewhat in the period ahead.