Projected 11-Million-Tonne Decline in Global Rice Production

New Delhi. The impact of the El Niño weather cycle, which has led to reduced rainfall in India and several other Asian nations, is expected to adversely affect this year’s paddy crop. In light of this, the International Grains Council (IGC) has projected that global rice production will fall by 11 million tonnes—from 547 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season to 536 million tonnes in the 2026-27 season. India alone is expected to see a decline in rice production by 6 million tonnes.

This marks the first time in a decade that a year-on-year decline in global rice production has been projected. Conversely, global consumption is expected to rise, with increased demand anticipated across sub-Saharan Africa and various Asian countries. Due to lower production and higher consumption, global surplus rice stocks are projected to decline—the first such drop in four years.

The global supply and availability situation may become somewhat complex, likely exerting upward pressure on prices. Nevertheless, despite the decline in production, India will continue to hold sufficient rice stocks available for export.